Sunday Special: My 2020/2021 Oscar Predictions

Hello, dear reader!

Well, the 93rd Academy Awards are tonight, and I for one am hyped up! This year was quite an interesting one to make predictions for the Oscars, as so many of the heavily nominated movies haven't been available for me to see due to a nasty combination of my student budget, the pandemic situation and the various ways of movies being released. I've only seen three out of the eight Best Picture nominees, for example. Still, after taking a careful and analytical look at critic reviews, movie trailers, award season trends and other factors, I've been able to compile a list of predictions for each category that I feel quite confident about.

Best Visual Effects - Tenet (Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee and Andrew Lockley)

Full disclosure - I haven't seen the other four nominees in this category as of yet. But it's hard to imagine any of them beating Christopher Nolan's Tenet, which seems to be the category's clear frontrunner by all accounts. Critics have been raving about the film's visuals all year long, and such an exceptional visual department certainly deserves such an accolade for their meticulous work.

Best Sound - Sound of Metal (Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés & Michelle Couttolenc)

Does Sound of Metal have the best sound design I've ever seen in a movie? Perhaps. I can't say for sure. But have I ever seen a movie where sound design plays such a huge and crucial part to make the film great as it does in Sound of Metal? Certainly not. The film is a largely auditive experience, as what you hear matters a lot more than what you see. The protagonist's gripping struggle with hearing loss comes to life with startling realism, as the film's sound mixing and sound editing departments do a brilliant job conveying exactly what he hears, what he doesn't hear and how he hears things to the audience. There are hardly any categories where I feel as sure about the winner as I do in this one.

Best Short Film, Live Action - The Letter Room (Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan)

I haven't had a chance to see The Letter Room, but it sure is uncommon for a short film to gain this much attention and acclaim. Directed by Elvira Lind, starring Oscar Isaac and having gotten attention at the Tribeca Film Festival and the Palm Springs International ShortFest, this short seems to have a lot more Oscar-hype behind it (I mean, the lead actor's name is literally Oscar) than the other nominees behind it, making it a clear frontrunner.

Best Short Film, Animated - If Anything Happens I Love You (Michael Govier and Will McCormack)

God, this short film f*cked me up. If you thought that the Animated Short category is just a bunch of children's movies, this heart-shattering frontrunner will definitely make you think again. It is a beautifully animated, beautifully told and extremely depressing short film that touches some very important societal issues that we all should care about. I won't spoil any details, but I recommend spending 12 minutes on watching this masterpiece to all Netflix users out there.

Best Production Design - Mank (Donald Graham Burt & Jan Pascale)

This one is quite the no-brainer; Mank has some of the very best set design and production value that I have seen in any movie from the last five years or so. The film details the story behind the legendary screenplay for Citizen Kane (1941) - truly the Citizen Kane of movies, wouldn't you say? Anywho, this setting makes for some delicious scenery, as the film's production design team does a beautiful job recreating early 40's Hollywood, making for an end product that truly feels as if it had been shot right then and there.

Best Music, Original Song - One Night In Miami (Leslie Odom Jr. - Speak Now)

While I haven't yet had the opportunity to see One Night In Miami, I'm still very much rooting for this song to win - it's an awesome song and I reckon it fits the film well based on the premise and trailer, and furthermore, I'm a humongous fan of Leslie Odom Jr. both as an actor and a musician. He does a great job with the song, which feels like quite the Academy Award winner with its powerful message and emotional atmosphere.

Best Music, Original Score - Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Jon Batiste)

I must admit that I still haven't seen Pixar's Soul. But I listened to all five nominated soundtracks on Spotify, and this was definitely the standout. The variation between Jon Batiste's snappy and jazzy compositions and the more otherwordly, epic soundscapes created by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross of Nine Inch Nails fame, is quite startling. The film has also gotten a lot of critical acclaim for its score, including the Golden Globe for that category - all the more reason for it to win the Oscar.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal & Jamika Wilson)

This film, based on August Wilson's play of the same name, sure had a big emphasis on its aesthetic. The way everyone looks really adds to the atmosphere, especially the look of leading lady Ma Rainey. Her over-the-top makeup immediately makes you wonder about her attitude, presence and motivations, and actress Viola Davis is made to look very much like her real-life counterpart.

Best International Feature Film - Another Roud (Thomas Vinterberg)

It's always a dead giveaway for this category when one of the films is also nominated in other categories. Just look at last year with Parasite - while we didn't necessarily see its Best Picture and Best Director wins coming, it was clear based on its list of nominations that it was going to win Best International Feature Film. The Danish Another Round may not be Parasite, but it did get nominated in the Best Directing category, while the other four nominees are only nominated in this category. Therefore, the Oscar goes to Another Round.

Best Film Editing - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Alan Baumgarten)

This one is a bit of a toss-up between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland, made all the harder to predict due to the fact that I haven't seen Nomadland yet. But while I have heard good things about the editing in Nomadland, I'll have to see it for myself before believing that it outdoes Alan Baumgarten's work in The Trial of the Chicago 7 in this category. The film flows smoothly, as the editing plays a big part in Aaron Sorkin's brilliant script coming to life in a tight and entertaining manner.

Best Documentary, Short Subject - A Love Song for Latasha (Sophia Nahali Allison and Janice Duncan)

I wouldn't bet any money on this one, as I haven't had the time and energy to acquaint myself with all of the nominees in this category. Therefore I'm going with the only one that I've seen, Netflix's A Love Song for Latasha, which certainly is a fantastic short documentary that wholeheartedly deserves to win unless there is a better nominee out there that I'm unaware of.

A Love Song for Latasha is Oscar material for sure, with its well-documented material and gripping themes as it details the story of Latasha Harlins, a 15-year-old African-American girl who was shot and killed in a vicious hate crime that sparked mass protests back in the 90's. It's infuriating to watch this film and reflect on how little things have changed, but watching it serves as an important reminder of the victims of hate crimes being actual individuals with lives to live, and not just weekly statistics of how horrible things are.

Best Documentary, Feature - Time (Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino & Kellen Quinn)

Garrett Bradley's documentary Time has gotten a lot of acclaim for its gripping look at the flaws in the U.S. justice system, a topic that has been extremely relevant for the last 250 years or so. I haven't seen the documentary, but I've seen some of its rivals in the category and none of them seemed quite as Oscar-worthy as Time seems to be based on all I've heard (although Netflix's Crip Camp was very well-made and touching, and I'll be happy if it pulls a surprise win!).

Best Costume Design - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ann Roth)

It's a period piece based a play, so of course the costume design is fantastic. While I have a lot of respect for the dapper costume aesthetic of this film and am pulling for it to win the category, it's a tough call - Costume Design is definitely one of the most even categories this year, and one of the most likely ones for me to get wrong. I see Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as the most likely winner when forced to choose one, but I won't be surprised if the 1940's Hollywood fashion from Mank or the Regency-era royal clothing from Emma take the Oscar home instead.

Best Cinematography - Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)

This one is a real toss-up between Nomadland and Mank. It's difficult to compare, as I've seen Mank and therefore have firsthand experience of Erik Messerschmidt's clever and intricate cinematography, Citizen Kane -channelling and all. But, based on the reviews and ravings about Nomadland (it really sucks that I haven't gotten a chance to see this film yet), it sounds like its cinematography might be even more Oscar-worthy. I can certainly believe it based on the trailer, full of atmospheric shots of beautiful scenery.

Best Animated Feature Film - Soul (Pete Docter and Dana Murray)

Every year, there are a few categories that I could fairly confidently bet a hundred euros on. Last year, it was Best Cinematography for 1917 and Best Foreign Language Film for Parasite. This year, Pixar's Soul is definitely among these done deals. The Animated Feature category always seems to follow the same archetypes with its nominees, and this year is no different: there's the out-of-the-mainstream film that has the second-best chance of winning (Wolfwalkers), the mainstream Disney/Pixar hit that was very popular but not as acclaimed as the one that's going to win (Onward), the slightly different movie that sounds good but definitely not Oscar-y enough to win (Over the Moon) and, of course, the "Oh crap we have four great nominees but have to have a fifth one" (no offense, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon).

And then there's the one that's clearly going to win: Pixar's Soul, which is nominated in several other categories and has gotten an insane amount of critical acclaim. Here's a promise to show how serious I am: if Soul doesn't win this category, I'm going to watch all the Sharknado movies and do a blog post where I rank them in excruciating detail.

Best Writing, Original Screenplay - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

While many movies have a foot in this race (I won't be shocked if Minari or Promising Young Woman takes the win), my money is on Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7. It was my #1 favorite movie of the year 2020, so I'm definitely hoping that it wins something - and what category better than best Original Screenplay? Aaron Sorkin is definitely one of the greatest screenwriters in modern cinema, and the script for this relevant historical drama is among his best work.

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay - Nomadland (Chloé Zhao, based on the book by Jessica Bruder)

This category has three nominees that seem exceptionally unlikely to win it, and two quite likely candidates. Between Nomadland and Father, I see Chloé Zhao's screenplay as the more likely option. Again, I haven't seen the film yet, but I've heard many good things about how the story comes together in a rather unique manner. If Nomadland is to win Best Picture, as many are guessing, it would stand to reason that it wins quite a few other categories too - and I'm guessing that Adapted Screenplay is one of them.

Best Director - Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

This one I'm pretty sure of. From an "Award shows are all politics" standpoint, it is realistic that the pragmatist members of the Academy want to respond to criticism in recent years of female directors being snubbed by giving this award to a female director, and what better time for that than now, when Chloé Zhao's brainchild is one of the frontrunners in the whole ceremony? That alone gives a lot of likeliness-points to Nomadland in this category, but its biggest asset is still the more "Oscars tend to go to good movies, more often than not" viewpoint, which my idealistic mind still wants to see as the more important metric. By all accounts, Nomadland is an extremely well-directed film, and Chloé Zhao a very Oscar-worthy director.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role - Judas and the Black Messiah (Daniel Kaluuya)

It's weird how much I'm hoping for Dan Kaluuya to win this, in addition to it being my prediction, even though Judas and the Black Messiah is among the Oscar films I haven't seen yet. But the film sounds awesome, and Kaluuya is such a fantastic actor that I'd be extremely happy if he won an Academy Award. Furthermore, I've seen many of the other films nominated in this category, and while the likes of Paul Raci in Sound of Metal and Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 were very impressive and deserving of being nominated, they didn't quite have that "THIS GUY NEEDS TO WIN AN OSCAR FOR THIS PERFORMANCE" vibe to them. Daniel Kaluuya playing legendary historical figure Fred Hampton in this film has that vibe based on the trailer alone.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Minari (Youn Yuh-jung)

Yet another toss-up, as there are no clear frontrunners in this ambitious category. But Minari is bound to win something, with all the critical acclaim and Award Season hype surrounding it, and Youn Yuh-jung's performance has gotten a lot of praise its way. I'm guessing that Minari won't quite make in the categories of Best Picture, Director or Screenplay (although there definitely are less likely options), but I'm betting it takes home at least one award and this might just be it.

Best Actor in a Leading Role - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Chadwick Boseman)

Chadwick Boseman was an amazing actor and a fantastic human being, and his untimely passing was one of the most heartbreaking moments in a year full of heartbreak. Not only would it be a touching tribute to his legacy if he won a posthumous Oscar, but it would be one hundred per cent deserved as well - he does a breathtaking job in the difficult role of Levee, an ambitious horn player who has trouble getting along with his colleagues (to put it mildly). From his brilliant interactions with his fellow cast members to his tear-jerking monologue concerning racism, everything in this performance is brilliant and totally Oscar-worthy.

Rest in Power, King.

Best Actress in a Leading Role - Promising Young Woman (Carey Mulligan)

The biggest toss-up of them all this year. The Best Leading Actress category will have me on the edge of my seat, as it is such a big category and the race is exceptionally even this year. Four of the five nominees have a very fair chance of winning, as the Oscar hype seems to be split four ways; Andra Day won the Golden Globe for this category for her performance in The United States Vs. Billie Holiday, Viola Davis did a unique and Academy-standard-pleasing performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Frances McDormand has a history of winning Oscars and starred in the year's biggest predicted Oscar-winner Nomadland, and Carey Mulligan has gotten immense critical praise for her role in Promising Young Woman. While none of these four would surprise me, my money is on Carey Mulligan at the end of the day. She is a remarkable actress and I've heard so much praise about this particular role that it feels right to put her on my Oscar ballot this year.

Best Picture - Nomadland (Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears and Chloé Zhao)

As I have mentioned roughly 20 times throughout this post, I'm sorry to admit that I haven't seen Nomadland yet. But based on all that I've seen or heard relating to the film, well, it will win Best Picture. It seems to check all the boxes - conventional enough to agree with the more traditional Academy members but different enough to please the ones who want something fresh, critically acclaimed in pretty much every aspect of filmmaking, topical and emotionally powerful, not to mention the fact that it won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama. Most of the Best Picture nominees seem to belong to the "No way this is going to win" category, and while films like Mank and Minari have a small chance to pull off an upset, Nomadland is the clear frontrunner in my book.

Thank you for reading! I'm excited to see how well I do - last year I only got 12 out 24 correct, which was fairly disappointing (although I was so happy to see so many surprise winners that I didn't really mind). This year I'm hoping to get a better score; there is one category less as the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories have been combined, so 12 out of 23 or more will be an improvement. Tune in next week for my post on the Top 10 Iconic Movie Trees in honor of Arbor Day (no, really!) and a reveal on how well I did with these predictions!