The Academy Awards will be held this Sunday, and as is tradition, I'm sharing my annual predictions with my dear readers. So far, every year I've posted my predictions on this blog of mine, I've gotten a better score than in previous years - 12 correct predictions out of 24 three years ago, 13 out 23 two years ago, and a whopping 17 out of 23 last year. Let's see if I'll be able to keep the momentum going!
Best Live Action Short Film - An Irish Goodbye
This one is a real 50/50 between BAFTA-winning short film An Irish Goodbye, and the Alfonso Cuaron -produced Le Pupille. While both have some momentum, I'm going with the overall critical acclaim and hype behind An Irish Goodbye. While the themes of Le Pupille are even more Oscar-bait than its main competitor, one must also consider whether the Academy would prefer an 'old-school' short with lots of film festival circulation, or one released on Disney Plus. So, I'm going with An Irish Goodbye.
Best Documentary Short Film - The Elephant Whisperers
Netflix's The Elephant Whisperers seems to have the most award-season hype around it, and no wonder why - it's a damn good 41-minute look at the relationship and barriers between humans and animals, and our harmony as well as disconnects with nature. The Elephant Whisperers just feels like an Oscar winner, with its powerful message and well-shot, neatly edited final product.
Best Documentary Feature Film - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
The Documentary Feature category is one of this year's biggest toss-ups - between All the Beauty and the Bloodshed's supposed frontrunner status, Navalny's BAFTA award for Best Documentary, the acclaim and Oscar-worthy themes of All That Breathes and Fire of Love's dark horse speculation, only one out of the five nominees (sorry, A House Made of Splinters) can be ruled out. But I'm going with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed here - a film centering on the opioid epidemic and pharmaceutical dynasties seems like proper Oscar bait, and director Laura Poitras has proved herself more than capable of winning this category in the past.
Best Animated Short Film - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse
While the most obscure of Academy Award categories might go a few different ways (The Flying Sailor also has its share of momentum, and some have been suggesting the fantastically titled My Year of Dicks as a potential dark horse), my money is on Apple TV's The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse. Not even for the story, but the animation style - over 120 people from 20 different countries worked on it during the lockdown phase of Covid, and the intricate pencil ink animation just looks wonderful and certainly Oscar-worthy.
Best Animated Feature Film - Pinocchio
Guillermo del Torro's Pinocchio remake has gotten vast critical acclaim, so far culminating in its Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film (soon to be outdone with its Oscar win for the same category). I haven't seen this one yet, but it seems to outdo all of its competitors in any given Oscar-hype factor.
Best International Feature Film - All Quiet on the Western Front
Each year, I pick one category I'm the most certain about, and make the same promise: if I get this one wrong, I'm going to watch all six Sharknado movies (as well as the two Lavalantula spin-offs) and rank them on my blog in excruciating detail. This year, I'm making the Sharknado promise about Best International Feature.
I mean, in years like this, it's a safe bet unless the Academy bullshits themselves - after all, when only one of the five International Feature Film nominees is also nominated for Best Picture, that's kind of a dead giveaway. Also, All Quiet on the Western Front just is one hell of a film.
Best Production Design - Babylon
I haven't seen Babylon yet, but just based on the trailers and promotional materials alone, the set design there is just something else. And how could the Academy resist rewarding a nostalgic recreation of historic Hollywood? While this is one of the few categories where all five nominees have at least somewhat of a slim chance and none can be totally ruled out, Babylon does seem like the most likely winner.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Whale
I haven't seen The Whale yet, but the Makeup and Hairstyling award seems to always go to the film where they use prosthetics to make a famous actor look totally different - Gary Oldman in The Darkest Hour (2017), Christian Bale in Vice (2018), John Lithgow in Bombshell (2019) et cetera, the pattern is there. And sure, that would also apply to Colin Farrell's Penguin look in The Batman as well as Brendan Fraser in The Whale, but The Whale just seems so much more Oscar-bait material out of those two.
Best Costume Design - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This one could go many ways, between the imaginative costumes of Wakanda Forever, the period-piece aesthetic of Babylon, and the recreation of several iconic Elvis costumes in Elvis. Still, I'm edging towards Black Panther - the first Black Panther won the Oscar for Best Costume Design, and the sequel is arguably even more deserving, with the creative costume design further expanding with the dazzling costumes of the newly introduced Talokan people in addition to the vibrant Wakanda costumes.
Best Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Editing is a bit of a toss-up this year, with Top Gun: Maverick having a fair shot and Banshees of Inisherin as well as Elvis not being totally ruled out either. Still, I reckon it'll be Paul Rogers' work on Everything Everywhere All at Once that nabs the award - the film is littered with clever cuts and quick edits, greatly adding to the world-hopping nature of the final product.
Best Sound - Top Gun: Maverick
While this is one of the few categories where I've seen all five nominees, I can't really compare them objectively - I saw one on my laptop, one on a TV and three in the cinema, so take a wild guess which three impressed me the most with their sound design.
Still, it's hard to imagine any of them beating Top Gun: Maverick. Those jet sounds, and the way their roaring presence is mixed together with the dialogue and music and everything else in the action sequences - far out, man. The original Top Gun was only nominated for Best Sound in 1987, but I'm guessing that the sequel will go a notch further and bring the award home.
Best Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water
I mean, it's going to win, and admittedly it will be quite deserved. When considering that the Avatar sequel was somehow nominated for Best Picture (seriously, what the hell) even though its story, dialogue, acting and other such factors were mediocre at best, it almost feels like the visual effects alone were so good that they earned the film a Best Picture nomination in addition to its nomination and inevitable win in this category.
I already used up my Sharknado promise, but uh, if The Way of Water doesn't win this category, let's say I'll watch every Michael Bay movie and rank them.
Best Cinematography - All Quiet on the Western Front
My in-depth analysis is that the German remake of All Quiet on the Western Front will sweep this category, on the grounds that the cinematography in this film is awesome and it f**king rules.
Best Music, Original Song - RRR (M. M. Keeravani & Chandrabose - Naatu Naatu)
Another no-brainer. I've seen three of the films nominated in this category, and while Rihanna's Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Lady Gaga's Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick and Son Lux, Mitski & David Byrne's This Is a Life from Everything Everywhere All at Once are all good, none of them seems quite as 'Oscar-winner' as this catchy banger from Indian Telugu film RRR. Naatu Naatu also took home the Golden Globe for Best Original Song, which just adds firepower to its case.
Best Music, Original Score - Babylon (Damien Chazelle)
As I mentioned, I haven't seen Babylon - but having listened to several tracks of Justin Hurwitz's score, it almost feels like I have. That's how much of a picture his music paints. And based on the deserved acclaim of Whiplash and La La Land, it feels like a Justin Hurwitz score in a Damien Chazelle film just can't go wrong. What a partnership.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role - Everything Everywhere All At Once (Ke Huy Quan as Waymond Wang)
Here are a couple of reasons why Ke Huy Quan will win Best Supporting Actor: the Best Picture winner always wins quite a few other categories so this could be one of them, Quan's career comeback is the perfect cinderella story for the Oscars, and based on his acting in the Best Picture frontrunner, the dude does deserve award season acclaim - I mean really, what a performance. I won't be mad if either one of the nominated Banshees of Inisherin performances pulls an upset (I personally think Barry Keoghan deserves the award more than Brendan Gleeson or Ke Huy Quan), but I'm guessing the award will go Quan's way.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Angela Bassett as Ramonda)
This is an odd one - you'd think I'd be in front of the hype-train for a performance in a Marvel movie potentially winning an Oscar. However, with this particular performance, I have some mixed feelings - nothing against Angela Bassett and her amazing career, but I personally wasn't the biggest fan of her performance in Wakanda Forever. It felt a bit too melodramatic, a bit unnatural in the intensity of emotion - a bit too 'trying to win an Oscar'.
So, obviously she's winning the Oscar. If there's one thing the Academy loves, it's movies and people doing everything they can to try and be 'Oscar-worthy'. Don't get me wrong, I will be happy for Bassett if she wins, because she's an overall great actress who hasn't yet won an Oscar. It just feels a bit odd if she wins it for this one, instead of her more authentic and impressive performances in films like Boyz-N-the-Hood (1991) or Malcolm X (1992).
Best Actor in a Leading Role - The Whale (Brendan Fraser as Charlie)
The Whale took forever to hit cinemas in Jyväskylä, and when it finally did earlier this week, I was too busy to go and see it before the Oscars. Word seems to be that the Best Actor category is a tough race between dual frontrunners Austin Butler (who played Elvis in Elvis), and Brendan Fraser (who plays the protagonist in The Whale). Fraser was considered to be the frontrunner, until Butler swept up the Golden Globes and other award shows, and now the hype seems to be turning to his side. Colin Farrell can't be ruled out either.
But, I'm trusting the word of my Uncle Dan, who sent me this Facebook message a few months ago: "Man, go see Brendan Fraser in The Whale!!! If he doesn't win the best-actor Oscar, they might as well burn Hollywood down!"
Best Actress in a Leading Role - Tár (Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár)
This one is a tough race between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Looking at Golden Globe precedent doesn't help either, because of that gala's silly system of splitting movies into 'dramas' and 'comedies and musicals', as Blanchett won their award for Best Lead Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama, while Yeoh won Best Lead Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy.
Still, I'm guessing that Blanchett will be taking home her third Academy Award - many have called Tár the #1 best performance of her incredible career, and even without having seen the film, her performance just feels like an Oscar-winner based on the trailer and the hype and the reviews. Michelle Yeoh is very good in Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I can see her performance not being the year's best - and if Blanchett really is even better here than she was in The Aviator (2004) or I'm Not There (2007), then I reckon there's a gold statuette waiting with her name on it.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
I haven't seen Women Talking, but there are two things I know: one, based on the title I'm willing to bet anything that this film passes the Bechdel test with flying colors, and two, every review of this film seems to be focused on the script being its strongest suit. It's all about the dialogue and writing here, so much so that I'm guessing it'll take the win even though it's been lowly nominated in other categories.
It's also a good hint that it was the only one out of these five nominees to be nominated for Best Screenplay in the Golden Globes! The Globes have only one category for writing, and four of their nominees were original screenplays while this lone script from the adapted category made it.
Best Writing, Original Screenplay - The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin really fecking should win this fecking award, because the great writing is the very backbone of what makes this 9-nominations masterpiece so fecking good. The concept of "bored and lonely people talking to each other on an Irish island for two hours" could easily be boring, but the dialogue keeps the viewer extremely engaged for the whole fecking runtime, so they better win a fecking Oscar for that. Fecking hell.
Best Directing - Everything Everywhere All at Once (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
Using the Golden Globes as a roadmap for Oscar predictions is always a double-edged sword - they're a good reference as there's always a lot of overlap in who wins which category, but the two never go exactly hand in hand. And I'm betting that Best Director will be one of those categories, where the Globe and the Oscar go to different directors - this year's GG winner Steven Spielberg definitely has a fair shot in the Oscars for his work on The Fabelmans, but I'm guessing that 'The Daniels' will barely beat the maestro this time around.
Best Picture - Everything Everywhere All at Once
While The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans have somewhat of a shot, I'm still going with the speculated frontrunner here. The Best Picture race is never a sure one, but a big night for Everything Everywhere All at Once just seems to be in the cards - even if it missed out on the similar category in the Globes, the overall award season hype is on this wacky film's side. The Best Picture race will have some real suspense to it until the last moments, but my gut says that this one is taking it.
Thank you for reading! Tune in next week for my ranking of the episodes in the newly-finished first season of HBO's The Last of Us (as well as a recap on how I did with my Oscar predictions).
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