Greetings, reader!
Well, it's that time of year again - these are my predictions for the 98th annual Academy Awards! Let's see if I can beat last year's score of 14 correct out of 23 (with the work and thought put into this, I really should).
Best Casting - Sinners (Francine Maisler)
Hooray for the new category! Not only is Sinners a very deserving winner, it's also the one that my money is on - the casting has been praised a lot, and for damn good reason. Every single character was played by the best possible actor here. This category is inevitably a bit hard to predict, as there's no precedent, but Sinners seems like such a logical winner.
Best Documentary Short - All the Empty Rooms (Joshua Seftel & Conall Jones)
This heartbreaking and harrowing documentary about school shootings seems to have the most critical acclaim and awards season buzz around it, not to mention the subject matter being something that the Academy often highlights (as they should).
Best Animated Short - Butterfly (Florence Miailhe & Ron Dyens)
There's always less data on these more obscure categories, but from what I've gathered, the award season hype seems to be centered the most around Butterfly and Retirement Plan. The winner could be either one of them, but my gut is telling me to go with this French film - the animation style seems more artistically vibrant, in the kind of way that the Academy is likely to reward, in this one.
Best Live Action Short - A Friend of Dorothy (Lee Knight and James Dean)
Although the category itself is never such a big deal in the media, this year's Live Action Short is promising to be one of the most evenly matched toss-ups - there appears to be a lot of merit, hype and successful award season campaigning around both A Friend of Dorothy and Two People Exchanging Saliva. I kept going back and forth between these two as I read up on Oscar season, but ended up going with the slightly more "obvious" pick. The premise in A Friend of Dorothy sounds very Oscar-bait-y, and while such films never win all the awards, they always get their share.
Best Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett)
I'm so sure of this one that I considered doing my annual Sharknado prediction about it, but then decided not to, as there were a select few that I felt even more certain of. But, yeah - the first two Avatar films won this award, and the third looks to be reaching their levels of acclaim in the visual arts. I haven't seen the film yet, but the trailer alone shows promise of Avatar continuing to be Avatar - the story might be mediocre and the lessons mixed, but you just know that James Cameron's team of CGI wizards is going to be taking home yet another Academy Award.
Best Cinematography - Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
As will become evident towards the end of today's post, what I'm hoping for and what I'm betting on are two very different things in this year's Oscars. However, there are some categories where the film I want to win is the same as the film I'm guessing to win, and one of these categories is Best Cinematography. The camerawork was excellent in Frankenstein and One Battle After Another, but let's be real - the Academy is kidding itself if they reward those over Arkapaw's delicate artistry in Sinners. Also, what's up with no woman winning this award in 98 years of Oscars? Let's make history this year, please.
Best Film Editing - One Battle After Another (Andy Jurgensen)
While I found this critical darling overrated as a whole, editing is one of those departments where even I can't be mad if they take home the Oscar. The film was very well-edited, and seeing as the film is on track to very possibly win multiple Oscars (including a semi-likely Best Picture), this category seems like a no-brainer for its collection.
Best Sound - F1 (Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta)
I haven't seen F1, but the thing is - I've seen so much praise about its sound editing and mixing, and so much either indifference or downright critique about the performances, directing and writing, that it makes the narrative look like the sound design carried the film all the way to its Best Picture nomination. And with this being the case, it would be weird as hell if didn't at least win Best Sound.
Best Production Design - Frankenstein (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau)
You can't watch 2025's Frankenstein adaptation without constantly admiring the vibrant world created under Guillermo Del Toro's artistic vision - the gothic style is delightfully loyal to Mary Shelley's source material, while Del Toro's own artistry and twists on the formula make the aesthetic a very specific type of gothic, one that I can't quite find the words for but that you have to see in order to believe. That's award-worthy stuff right there.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Frankenstein (Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey)
Every year, I pick the category I feel the most sure about and make a bold bet: if I get this one wrong, I will watch every film in the Sharknado! franchise (and its expanded universe) and rank them in excruciating detail. The stakes keep getting higher - by now, there are SIX Sharknado films, as well as two Lavalantula spin-offs and a crossover. So far, I'm six for six in my Sharknado predictions:
2019/20 - Best Cinematography for 1917
2020/21 - Best Animated Feature for Soul
2021/22 - Best Sound for Dune
2022/23 - Best International Feature for All Quiet on the Western Front
2023/24 - Best International Feature for The Zone of Interest
2024/25 - Best Production Design for Wicked
...But can I keep tempting fate forever? We're about to find out, as I'm making this year's Sharknado prediction about Frankenstein winning Best Makeup and Hairstyling. When it comes to this category, there's nothing that the Academy loves more than transforming a recognizable, conventionally attractive actor into a hardly recognizable visual tapestry with a bunch of prosthetics. This film certainly does that, and with tremendous skill, and it's very difficult to imagine any of the other nominees winning over this one.
Best Costume Design - Frankenstein (Kate Hawley)
This one is a bit of a toss-up, as Sinners has a fair shot of winning as well. But, having seen both films, I do see Frankenstein as an even more deserving winner for this category, and not in a totally subjective way but in one that I think the Academy will recognize as well. The film took home the BAFTA in the same category, and the way in which the extravagant period-piece clothes bring out the lavish aesthetic called for by Mary Shelley's source material is just too good not be rewarded.
Best Documentary Feature - The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu & Sam Bisbee)
I hate to be that guy who has only seen one of the five nominees yet has the audacity to claim that it deserves to win - but today, I am that guy. I mean, obviously it's very possible that the other nominees are as good or even better than The Perfect Neighbor, and would also be deserving winners. I just know that this one is such an exceptionally top-notch documentary (and with such a timely message), that it must be at least somewhat of a deserving winner, no matter how equally good the other four nominees might be.
My prediction isn't just based on my own feelings about how good the film was, obiously. Objectively, this is looking to be a toss-up between The Perfect Neighbor and Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Initially, the Netflix production that I'm going with seemed to have the award locked with its well-campaigned hype (mind you, it sucks that this PR stuff has so much bearing on Oscar success), but the BAFTAs shook things up to make the race interesting.
As the Golden Globes don't have a documentary category (the hell is up with that, anyway?), the BAFTAs are always the most pressing awards-season precedent for Oscar predictions in this category - and in a somewhat suprising move, Mr. Nobody Against Putin took the win. This might indicate a trend for the Oscars as well, but then again, the Academy never goes completely in line with the other award galas even though they reward many of the same movies. I'm still going with The Perfect Neighbor, but won't be surprised if either one of these two wins.
Best Animated Feature - KPop Demon Hunters (Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans & Michelle L.M. Wong)
A total no-brainer, so much so that I considered doing my Sharknado bet on this one although I ended up feeling even more sure about Makeup and Hairstyling. But, yeah, KPop Demon Hunters checks all the boxes - massively popular, tons of critical acclaim, won the Golden Globe, and the safely liberal Academy can pat themselves on the back for being all multicultural while still rewarding a very much American-produced KPop film. Yeah, I think it's safe to say they have this one locked - the biggest runner-up seems to be Zootopia 2 which took home the BAFTA, but I just don't see the "let's not give any nominations to Wicked: For Good" Academy rewarding a sequel unless they absolutely have to.
Best International Feature - Sentimental Value (Norway)
This category isn't as much of a closed case as it is in many years - quite often, one of the five nominees will be nominated in several other categories (including Best Picture) whereas the other four will be nominated only here, and those are always done deals. However, this year is an interesting case - out of the five International Feature nominees, four are nominated in multiple categories, including two Best Picture nominees. It stands to reason that the winner will be one of those two, and my money is on Sentimental Value over The Secret Agent.
Best Original Score - Sinners (Ludwig Göransson)
I can't believe that the guy who made the Community soundtrack is about to win his third Oscar - not to mention the fact that his first was for a superhero flick, while the second was for a Chris Nolan film and this one is for a Black vampire horror musical. What a time to be alive!
Yeah, I'm rioting if Göransson doesn't win for his work on the exquisite Sinners soundtrack. Between the deserved critical acclaim, the precedent of winning the Golden Globe and just the experience of listening to this score while having two ears attached to a heart, it's pretty clear why this category will go to the right direction.
Best Original Song - KPop Demon Hunters (Golden)
I wouldn't be completely floored if I Lied to You from Sinners took this award home instead, but still, I'm pretty darn sure about this one. Golden has gotten matched levels of popularity and critical acclaim, and the songs (this one in particular) are such a major part of this movie that it would make all the sense in the world for it to win. And once again, if one looks for the Globes for guidance (although one should always play that game carefully, as there's always a fair but not exact correlation between the Globes and the Oscars), Golden took the win there as well!
Best Original Screenplay - Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
I mean...dude wrote a horror movie about vampires that is really about racism (and the church) but also about the beauty of music and a celebration of Black culture, and it got a record-breaking sixteen Oscar nominations. If the script that made all of this possible isn't rewarded with an Oscar, the only possible explanation would be that those damn vampires got to the Academy (which, now that I think about it, seems scarily possible).
This is a bit tricky as Sinners didn't win the Golden Globe for screenwriting, but then again, the Globes have only one writing category instead of the dual system used in the Academy, and it went to an adapted screenplay, so none of Sinners' fellow nominees here got the win either.
Best Adapted Screenplay - One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Look, One Battle After Another is by no means a bad movie, but it is an overrated one, and I'm still pissed that it won the Golden Globe for screenwriting over Sinners. Well, come the Oscars, those two won't be competing against one another when it comes to the screenplay categories, as they're in different races. OBAA won the screenwriting Globe with twice the competition, so it's pretty obvious that it'll win the Oscar as well.
Best Director - One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
It breaks my heart to make this prediction, as Ryan Coogler deserves this award for his work with Sinners so much more than Anderson does. But, these are my predictions and not my hopes, and while I let a healthy bit of optimism sway my guesses in a few categories, I do have to be a realist as well. If Coogler does end up winning Best Director, I'll be as happy as anyone and I definitely won't give a damn about my predictions going wrong - so, in a way, I'm making this into a win-win for myself. Either I'm right or I'm the pleasantly surprised type of wrong.
Best Supporting Actor - Sentimental Value (Stellan Skarsgård)
I haven't seen Sentimental Value yet, but I'm still hoping for Stellan to win - he's such a brilliant actor with a distinguished career, and finally winning an Oscar at 74 years would be special. I've seen all of the fellow nominees for this category, and as brilliant as Sean Penn, Benedicio Del Toro and Jacob Elordi were, I can easily imagine the year's best supporting performance being even better than them (if Delroy Lindo wins, that'll be earned and I'll be happy, but apparently he's considered to be a bit of an underdog here). Penn won the BAFTA but Skarsgård won the Golden Globe, so it's a bit of a toss-up, but my money is on the Swedish legend.
Best Supporting Actress - One Battle After Another (Teyana Taylor)
This appears to be a close race between Teyana Taylor in OBAA and Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners. Out of the two, I'm hoping for Mosaku to win, as she had the even better performance in my view. That being said, Teyana Taylor is a talented actress so I won't be too distraught if she takes the win - as I'm guessing she will. She took home the Golden Globe, and she (along with the whole film) seems to be having the better award season PR campaign going on, which unfortunately holds way too much sway with the Academy.
Best Actress - Hamnet (Jessie Buckley)
With this one, looking to the Globes for guidance gets a bit tricky, because of how utterly ridiculous their category system is. They divide films into dramas and others (comedy, musical et cetera) with a weirdly arbitrary touch (One Battle After Another is listed as a comedy. I laughed maybe once, twice tops, while watching it), but only for some categories. For supporting actors and actresses, there's only one category, but for leading performances, they have separate categories for drama and "comedy/musical" - you can't make this shit up.
Anyways, it stands to reason that either Jessie Buckley or Rose Byrne will win the Oscar, as they both took home Golden Globes for Best Leading Actress. Out of the two, I'm going with Buckley - her performance has garnered even more critical acclaim, and this seems to be the only category where the 8-nomination juggernaut Hamnet has a fair chance of winning. Eight nominations and zero wins would be rough.
Best Actor - Marty Supreme (Timothée Chalamet)
Yep, I'm calling it - this is the year that Jiminy Chameleon is winning his first Oscar. Obviously, it's not like it's a hot take - people have been calling him a future Oscar winner for about a decade, and this is the first time when he's looking to be the frontrunner. He won the Globe (then again, so did Wagner Moura due the weird-ass system), and his performance has been the most praised aspect of Best Picture nominee Marty Supreme with a wide margin.
I won't mind if Michael B. Jordan wins for Sinners, but I'll be livid if Leo wins for OBAA - and if Timpani Chamomile wins like I'm guessing, I won't have a strong opinion as I haven't seen the movie yet. I know he's a brilliantly talented actor and he's had a handful of arguably Oscar-worthy performances already, so I'm guessing the Academy knows what they're doing. Some have speculated that his recent, ridiculously tone-deaf comments about the fine arts might affect his chances of winning an Oscar, but I'm pretty sure that voting closed before that story blew up, so I'm guessing Timetable Chlamydia is safe.
Best Picture - One Battle After Another
I haven't been this invested in the Best Picture race in years, and unfortunately, my hopes and my predictions are at odds. I cannot find the right words to describe how strongly I feel, on every possible level, that Sinners deserves to win over One Battle After Another. I feel this on a filmmaking level - obviously, OBAA is a well-made movie that deserves many of its nominations and even a few wins, but Sinners is vastly superior in terms of writing, directing, score, acting performances, cinematography, costumes and makeup, production design, and especially the art of being groundbreaking and unique.
But even more so, I feel it on the social and cultural level of a movie having something to say - the Academy has always been political, as it should, because all art is inescapably political, no matter what Neil Patrick Harris says. The race between OBAA and Sinners is all too similar to the race between Green Book and BlacKKKlansman in 2018, and we all know how that turned out. The Academy loves to award a political film, as long as it's political in a safe, sexy, marketable and moderately liberal way, as not to ruffle too many feathers. BlacKKKlansman deserved to win Best Picture, but the Academy didn't want to reward a film that is truly anti-racist through exposing uncomfortable truths about systemic racism and the lines between past and present while motivating white people to educate themselves and change for the better, so it makes all the sense in the world that they rewarded Green Book, which largely presents racism as an issue of the past and taps white people on the shoulder with a "some of us are good ones, job well done!" attitude.
And I fear that the exact same will happen this year. We have Sinners, the perfect film for the Trump era, as it boldly tackles severe and complex issues like the role of the church in systemic racism and the ruling class pitting migrants against other migrants, while celebrating Black culture loud and proud. And then we have One Battle After Another, a film that is political in a cowardly, bare-minimum fashion: it presents a vague metaphor for the current situation with fictional fascists running society and rebels fighting against it, while not really saying anything beyond "the fascists are bad guys". Sure, it's a good message, but in terms of political art, the current time calls for something deeper, and there is a lot to choose from. Sinners is the movie equivalent of Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib calling Trump out by shouting "You've killed Americans!" during his SOTU speech, while OBAA feels like the rest of the House Democrats quietly watching the rise of fascism from a front-row seat and later posting think-pieces about "the power of silent disapproval" - so you know the second one is going to win, for the same reason that the media is coronating Gavin Newsom as the next Democratic nominee for President.
I'd be more than happy to be wrong about this, and I'll be overjoyed if Sinners wins Best Picture. But I sure as shit won't be surprised if OBAA takes the win. I guess it's better that they reward moderately anti-fascist movies as opposed to rewarding pro-fascist movies, but still, it can't help but feel like a coward's way out when an actually thought-provoking piece of art like Sinners is right there.
Thank you for reading! Tune in next week for a post-Oscars post, as I rank the most deserving winners of this year's ceremony.
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