Greetings, reader!
As per tradition, I'm sharing my Oscar predictions on the last Thursday before the ceremony. Let's see how I do this year, and whether I beat my last year's score of 17 out 23!
Actor in a leading role - Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy)
This one will be a contested race, as Paul Giamatti's acclaimed role in The Holdovers has gotten a lot of critical acclaim and award season hype, with many seeing it as a possible dark horse. The winner will definitely be one of those two, but even with Giamatti's recent hype, my gut says to go with Cillian Murphy, whose explosive (heh) performance has been seen as a no-brainer Oscar winner since last summer.
Actor in a supporting role - Oppenheimer (Robert Downey Jr.)
I haven't seen nearly all of the films nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but RDJ is hard to beat - his role in Oppenheimer deserves to be bombarded with all sorts of awards (will I really do a different pun for all eight categories that I'm expecting Oppenheimer to win? Only time will tell).
Actress in a leading role - Killers of the Flower Moon (Lily Gladstone)
Lily Gladstone has been sweeping the awards season, becoming the first actress of Native American descent to win a Golden Globe, for example. A historic Oscar win on top of that would certainly look nice, and be a remarkable milestone for the native communities.
Actress in a supporting role - The Holdovers (Da'vine Joy Randolph)
While the selection of actresses nominated here is insane in terms of collective talent, the general award season hype seems to buzz around relative newcomer Da'vine Joy Randolph more than it does around more seasoned Hollywood names like Emily Blunt or Jodie Foster.
Animated feature film - The Boy and the Heron
This one could go many ways - often it is the mainstream Disney hit (Elemental) that wins, but this year, there's a subversive LGBTQ+ -themed cult hit (Nimona) and a mega-critically-acclaimed groundbreaking-animation-style film (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse) throwing wrenches in the gears. Yet I'm gambling and saying it's none of them: I would go with Spider-Verse but it's a sequel to a film that already one this award a few years back, and I would go with Nimona but they didn't really market it for award season hype so it's flying under the radar. Therefore I'm going with The Boy and the Heron, which I haven't seen but is apparently very good and Oscar-worthy.
Cinematography - Oppenheimer
Not only is Hoyte van Hoytema's cinematography in Oppenheimer incredibly impressive, it's exactly the kind of cinematography that often does well in the Academy Awards. A balance of technically impressive trick shots to show you've got the skills, and long, pensive and artistic shots that leave room to breathe and make the film feel all Oscar-y. After being nominated but not winning for Dunkirk, and somehow not getting nominated for Tenet, it's about time that the longtime Chris Nolan collaborator gets the recognition he deserves before his fuse is burnt.
Costume design - Barbie
This could go many different ways, but my money is on Barbie - despite underperforming in relation to expectations in nominations (I'm still not over the Greta Gerwig directing snub), I'm guessing Barbie will win a few categories, and this one is a no-brainer as the film's costume aesthetic was well-thought-out, diverse, zany and fun.
Directing - Oppenheimer
I'm anticipating a loud bang of applause when Christopher Nolan finally wins the Best Director Oscar that has evaded him for so long.
Documentary feature film - 20 Days in Mariupol
I haven't seen 20 Days in Mariupol, but apparently it's an amazing documentary detailing the horrors of war in Ukraine. It sounds like a documentary good enough to win the Oscars, and also the subject matter is exactly something that the Academy would want to highlight at this time.
Documentary short film - The ABCs of Book Banning
I haven't seen this one, but based on what I've heard about it, I really hope it wins, as it appears to shed light on one of the more frustrating aspects of the ridiculous culture wars going on in the U.S. right now. This short documentary winning an Oscar might not change anything, but I reckon it would make for a nice symbolic gesture and a middle finger to the goddamn clowns who are quite literally following in Hitler's footsteps yet somehow don't realize they're on the wrong side of history.
Film editing - Oppenheimer
I'm anticipating Oppenheimer to be one of those films that come out every few years, where their critical acclaim and overall production values set off a chain reaction of various categories - it can't just win Best Picture and a couple of others, it's got to win like eight categories or something. Best Editing seems like a no-brainer to add to this collection.
International feature film - The Zone of Interest
Every year, I choose the category I'm the most sure about, and make a promise: if I don't get this one right, I'm going to watch all Sharknado films (Jesus Christ, apparently there are six of them AND THREE SPIN-OFFS by now) and rank them on my blog in excruciating order. I still haven't lost this bet, but one can only play with fire for so long. This year, my pick for the Sharknado category is International Feature Film.
It's a bit of a no-brainer when one of the films in this category is also nominated in a bunch of other categories - sure, the Spanish Society of the Snow also has one other nomination (makeup and hairstyling), but this U.K. film is nominated for Best Picture, Screenplay and Directing. It's a bit boring if the International Feature award goes to the equally white and western country that the U.S. spun off from, but then again, 'boring and predictable' is often quite a good tip-off when making Oscar predictions.
Makeup and hairstyling - Maestro
Movies about real-life figures from modern history are often a darling for this category, as truly making an actor look like their real-life counterpart is a bold challenge for makeup and hairstyling departments. Maestro has gotten its share of acclaim (as well as prosthetic nose controversy discourse) in Bradley Cooper's transformation into legendary composer Leonard Bernstein, so this seems like the one to go with.
Music (Original score) - Oppenheimer
It's hard not to be biased here, as Ludwig Göransson is one of my favorite modern composers and he deserves everything in life. But seriously, the Oppenheimer score has such potential to win this category - the unique soundscapes, the heart-pounding intensity, the composer so clearly working with razor-sharp creativity and atomic precision (I know, the puns are getting lazy).
Music (Original song) - Barbie (What Was I Made For)
Billie Eilish' music is always a hit with the critics, and this song won this same category at the Golden Globes. It's going to be one of the two nominated Barbie songs for sure, but I reckon this one has more Oscar potential than I'm Just Ken.
Picture - Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer has all the elements of a Best Picture winner. Its production values merit wins in several other categories, it's bound to do well in the ranked-voting system as it's hard to imagine many Academy members putting it last, its critical acclaim and award season hype are massive, and its message is thought-provoking and timely. Oh, and it didn't bomb in the box office either.
Production design - Barbie
This one could go many ways - most years, there's a clear frontrunner for Best Production Design, but this time, it's an even playing field. Will they go with the zany and colorful sets of Barbie, the deep-end historical designs of Napoleon, or the ambitious and attention-to-detail-oriented productions Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon? It could go many ways, and I wouldn't be surprised to the least if especially Oppenheimer won. But, gun to my head, my money is on the Academy rewarding out-of-the-box creativity with Barbie!
Animated short film - Letter to a Pig
Geopolitical complexities will definitely have a role to play in whether or not the Academy chooses to highlight this French-Israeli production. I could see it going either way, but I'm guessing they will go with this one.
Live action short film - The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Usually, the short film categories go to whichever film has the most socially relevant message that the Academy wants to boost at that time. But this year, I'm guessing that they'll make an exception and award Live Action Short Film to this creative fantasy tale, as it has a lot more critical hype around it than any of its fellow nominees.
Sound - Oppenheimer
The Oscars have often shown appreciation for groundbreaking films, and the sound design in Oppenheimer is bold in a way that will likely influence many films to come, creating quite a boom.
Visual effects - Godzilla Minus One
This Japanese Kaiju reboot has a bit of an underdog approach to it, as films of this nature rarely do well at the biggest award shows. But the visual effects of Godzilla Minus One have been so spectacularly praised on multiple different fronts, that even the Academy might be able to recognize that not all great cinema comes from Hollywood. As a major fan of the Godzilla franchise and the general Kaiju mythos in Japanese cinema, I'm really hoping I'm right about this one.
Writing (Adapted screenplay) - Barbie
This year, I'm calling Best Adapted Screenplay as the single most hotly contested Academy Award, when combining the even-ness of the playing field with the prestige of the award. This is the nail-biter I'm looking forward to, as it could go so many ways - will they reward the socially poignant and relevant script of American Fiction, the humorous and out-of-the-box way of delivering a feminist message with Barbie, or the much-praised dialogue and storytelling of Poor Things? Or will this be yet another award thrown Oppenheimer's way, as the screenplay certainly is up there with the year's best?
It's going to be a tough race - so tough, in fact, that I'm forfeiting my vision as a betting man and choosing to play with faith and bet on the film I'd most want to win the category (this optimistic and romantic tactic is also known as "my brother Ville betting actual money on England winning the football World Cup / European Championship every time"). Greta Gerwig's Barbie script is genius and would deserve to win, so I'll just try to manifest it.
Writing (Original screenplay) - Anatomy of a Fall
It's a pretty good tip-off that in the Golden Globes, Anatomy of a Fall won the whole writing thing - they don't have separate categories for adapted and original screenplays, but rather lump them all in together, and Anatomy of a Fall took the win. So I'm guessing it'll do the same when there's half the competition.
Thank you for reading! Let's see how well I do this year - last year's 17 out of 23 will be tough to beat.
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