Greetings, reader!
Well, it's that time of year again - the Premier League season is about to start. Now, I know, this is supposed to be a movie/TV blog - but once again, I will remind you that the Premier League can very much be seen as the ultimate reality TV show, with every match broadcast on television being the newest episode. So it's not off-topic (hey, I don't make the rules!). These are my predictions for each team's placement in the 2025/26 season!
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers (last year's finish: 16th)
I could be wrong here, but I have a strong intuition - this is the year the Wolves come crashing down. I mean, they didn't do all that great last season, and now they've sold their two best and most important players to Manchester United and Manchester City (oh man, Cunha and Aït-Nouri going from teammates to ultimate rivals like that is pure Shakespeare).
Of course, this is chance for a rebuild if they manage to use the money from those transfers wisely - but more often than not, we see a dip in quality when a smaller team lets go of its stars. With no other obvious picks for 20th place, I'm guessing the Wolves are going down, and will have to continue their rebuild from the Championship.
19. Sunderland (last year's finish: 4th in the Championship; promotion via playoffs)
It's a tradition of mine in these annual predictions to choose one of the three newly promoted clubs to do really well, one to barely avoid relegation, and one to get relegated. I usually go with the most football-romantic pick for the 'barely avoid relegation' one, but this year I went a different route (you'll see why).
But yeah, I never hope for any of the newly promoted teams to drop right back, but at least one always does, and my money is on Sunderland. From their no-name squad to their tricky route to the Premier League, they just have "can't quite compete in the top flight" written all over them. I hope they prove me wrong and pull off a scrappy underdog tale!
18. Bournemouth (last year's finish: 9th)
I know, this is a bold take. But, the thing is - after having a couple of surprisingly good seasons, Bournemouth is now at the shift where the potential of their best players has been noticed by bigger clubs, and by the looks of it, they're really getting scrapped for parts. Kerkez to Liverpool (I certainly don't mind), Huijsen to Real Madrid and Aarons to Rangers are three big transfers that are effectively leaving the club without the back line that helped them get so far last season. Of course, using the transfer money wisely can happen, but such a big rebuild is a major risk, so I'm guessing the club will see a major dip in quality, and a relegation battle that won't end in their favor.
17. Burnley (last year's finish: 2nd in the Championship)
I mentioned earlier that I usually pick the most football-romantic choice of the newly promoted clubs to barely avoid relegation. However, when Burnley is involved, I like to do the opposite, for shits and giggles. Burnley is known for playing in a style that is quite the opposite of football romanticism - well, okay, that depends on the definition, as there is something quite traditional about their brand of 'Brexit football'.
Anyhow, I'm guessing that the club will net just enough 0-0 ties, as well as 1-0 wins with all eleven players locked in the box for ultimate bus-parking after their goal, that they'll scrape enough points to just miss out on relegation.
16. Brighton & Hove Albion (last year's finish: 8th)
Again, a bold drop from last year. It's not that I think Brighton is going to have a particularly bad year - it's just that I'm predicting a good season and a rise in the rankings for many other teams, and they can't all be in the top or middle tiers. There's nothing all that exciting about the current Brighton squad, even though they've clearly managed to get decent results in the last few seasons.
If the dinosaurs like Lewis Dunk, Danny Welbeck and my man James Milner manage to run it back one last time, while star winger Kaoru Mitoma keeps his level, my #16 prediction might go well off and a finish in the top 10 wouldn't surprise me. But something in my intuition says that things won't quite click for Brighton this season, and they'll struggle.
15. Brentford (last year's finish: 10th)
Brentford is a tough one. They're losing their big star from last season, Bryan Mbeumo - I can't for the life of me figure out why a player in his prime would leave a solid midtable club like Brentford to play in a small, tinpot club who escaped relegation to finish 15th last season (the club in question is something called "Manchester United". Apparently used to be quite big back in the day). But they're gaining new talent, such as Liverpool's long-time backup keeper Caoimhín Kelleher, who is sure to make a fantastic #1 keeper for Brentford!
I expect a solid season from the London-based team, but a slight dip in quality with the loss of Mbeumo and the tough competition from teams in the same tier. They won't be fighting for relegation, but they'll rank relatively low nonetheless.
14. Fulham (last year's finish: 11th)
I reckon Marco Silva's Fulham is going to have yet another solid year, but the competition will be tight enough to keep them from the top ten. Feel free to prove me wrong, Cottagers - I rather like many of their players and the style of football they've been playing the last few years. I just don't see quite enough momentum, in terms of transfers and team-building, to believe that they'll be in the upper midtable section.
13. Tottenham Hotspur (last year's finish: 17th)
This is a tough one - on one hand, it's Tottenham, but on the other...it's Tottenham. After many years of being made fun of because they had the potential for trophies but kept coming in 2nd in major tournaments, we saw an era where Tottenham got made fun of for doing even worse than expected and finishing outside Champions League (or even Europa League) qualification - and now, we've entered a whole new era of banter, as the team defied all expectations to finish just one spot above the relegation zone last year. Mind you, this is one of the "Big Six" teams. They played a Champions League final in 2019. Pretty hilarious turn of events, to be honest.
Of course, what makes this even more bizarre is that they will be playing Champions League football this season, because they won the goddamn Europa League. Man, what a chaotic season they had. It goes without saying that all of this makes it utterly f**king impossible to predict where they'll land this season. If someone says they know what kind of season the Spurs are going to have, they're lying. Any placement between #2 and #19 won't shock me.
Generally, I place 'big teams' a few spots above their previous placement in my predictions if they've had a bad season, because teams with money do have a tendency to bounce back (at least to some degree). But, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Tottenham - even though they have the potential - won't be returning to top 6 battles just yet. They have tons of rebuilding to do, not to mention balancing the Premier League with European football. And I'm not completely sold on their transfer window - Liverpool and Arsenal are out there buying the world's best players, while the Spurs spent 36 million on *checks notes* someone called Kevin Danso from RC Lens, and Luka Vuskovic from the Croatian league.
12. Leeds United (last year's finish: 1st in the Championship)
And here we have my prediction for this year's awesome hot streak by a newly promoted team. Mind you, we don't see such a case every season (24/25 was an especially sad case, as the three teams that had been promoted were the exact same that ended up relegated). But I'm an optimist, and it's always nice to see a club fresh from the Championship tearing it up in the Prem. And if someone's gonna do that, it's Leeds.
First of all, their squad is stacked to the point that it's difficult to imagine players of that caliber playing away ties against Plymouth Argyle last season. Pascal Struijk, Dan James, Patrick Bamford and my man Brenden Aaronson from the U.S. - that's class, man. I reckon that Daniel Farke's Leeds will bring a fun, fresh and bold energy into the Premier League season, and establish themselves as a solid midtable club for seasons to come.
11. Everton (last year's finish: 13th)
One year ago, I let out a deep sigh and wrote that Everton are back. I predicted them to finish 11th then, and while they didn't get quite far, they did finish significantly higher than the clown show of their few earlier seasons.
Now, as a Liverpool fan, my hope each season is that Everton finish exactly at #17, because they're the enemy you love to hate, so it's nice for them to stay in the Prem for all the banter and the entertaining derbies. But when it comes to guessing, I'm throwing it out there that their upward momentum will continue for a few more years, perhaps culminating in a barely lost fight for Conference League spots (man, that would be hilarious). Their squad still looks a bit iffy, but Pickford in goal alone is a factor that'll earn the team their fair share of clean sheets.
10. Crystal Palace (last year's finish: 12th)
Every year I make my Premier League predictions, and every year it begins with the same step - taking Crystal Palace, the team that has finished between 10th and 14th place for eleven out of the twelve last seasons (the only exception being 2015/16, when they finished fifteenth), and placing them smack in the middle. Then I work from there, figuring out which 9 teams will be ahead of them and which 10 will be below. Seriously though, if there was a Ballon D'Or for the most consistently midtable football, Crystal Palace would win it every year.
9. Manchester United (last year's finish: 15th)
Much like Tottenham, this is a tough one. What to make of a team that was once one of the greats, then was hilariously subpar for a long while, and then had one really terrible season that they'll try to bounce back from? Can't know for sure with this chaotic, unpredictable train wreck of a team - but 9th is what I'm going with.
I mean, it's hard to imagine them doing any worse than last season (although it would be deeply amusing, so feel free to prove me wrong, Red Devils!), but it's equally hard to imagine the shitshow of a team we saw last season being suddenly back in the race for Champions League spots. My prediction for them is a bit of a boring compromise between the wild extremes of possibility - but man, having grown up in the era where Sir Alex's ManU basically won every year, it feels good to realize that we're in a stage in football history where United at ninth is a realistic and mundane prediction.
8. West Ham United (last year's finish: 14th)
Another tough one - I have a soft spot for the Hammers and keep over-hyping them in my predictions, and they keep letting me down with performances where they don't reach their full potential. This year, I'm toning it down a bit, and not predicting a top 4 or top 6 finish like in most years - but I'm still cautiously optimistic that they'll start to do better again.
Losing many key players that have been a big part of their dynamic poses a risk, but let's face it - Aaron Cresswell, Vladimir Coufal, Lukasz Fabianski and Kurt Zouma were far from their prime (also, f**k Kurt Zouma), so this generational rebuild could be a blessing in disguise. Whether it's via new player purchases, bumping up promising academy players or giving more responsibility to players who have been warming the bench, this is a chance for West Ham to revitalize the football they've been playing, and as I said, I'm cautiously optimistic about this direction.
7. Newcastle United (last year's finish: 5th)
Ever since they got bought by Big Oil, Newcastle United has spent all of its time on the verge of greatness - a big-name squad and a great manager making sure that they're a dangerous opponent for any club to face, yet something is keeping them from being truly huge and potential title contenders. Instead of predicting that they'll crash out or continue to improve, I'm guessing that at least this following season will be spent repeating the same struggle once again.
They'll win a lot of games but lose and/or tie enough to just fall short of the best clubs, and a fight for Champions League qualification will slowly turn into a fight for Europa League qualification (and this may be optimistic from someone who doesn't like Big Oil, but I'm saying that they'll barely bottle that as well in the end).
6. Nottingham Forest (last year's finish: 7th)
This formerly great club, having returned to top flight football just a few years ago and having had one brilliant season after many relegation-battle ones, is another classic "it could go either way" scenario. I could easily see the team struggling to keep their level after last season, with the players disheartened after barely missing out on European football despite spending a vast majority of the season at 3rd place. But, I could just as easily see the team being amped up, wanting to re-do last year's bottling, and providing more of the fresh and exciting football that we saw from them last year.
Ever the optimist, I'm going with option #2, manifesting that Forest will be neck to neck with many of the bigger teams, finishing their season off with a hard-fought spot in the Europa League.
5. Aston Villa (last year's finish: 6th)
I'm guessing and hoping that the brilliant form we've seen from Aston Villa in the last few seasons will continue! A lot depends on how the rest of the transfer window shakes out - but especially if Villa manage to retain sought-after key players like Emiliano Martinez and Ollie Watkins, they'll make for a dangerous team for anyone to go up against. They'll be a spirited contender in the top 4 battle, but I can't be too much of an optimist, so I'm guessing they'll barely miss out on that (as cool as it would be to see them playing Champions League football again).
4. Chelsea (last year's finish: 4th)
I have a strong intuition that Chelsea will finish the season in fourth place. Now, how they end up in fourth place can be either of two possible journeys: 1) the season sees a competitive, 4-team title race, until the London Blues are the first to fall out of form and end up last of the four, or 2) they aren't title race potential due to a weak early season, but they muster the strength to catch up and gain a barely fought 4th-place finish to ensure Champions League football for the following season.
3. Arsenal (last year's finish: 2nd)
This is a tough one. 2nd place would've seemed to most logical, but honestly, they can't keep doing that from year to year. So, I had two options - either predict Arsenal to win the whole f**king thing, or then have a drop in quality from their recent streak of 2nd-place finishes.
I considered putting them at #1 - I did predict that for them last year (never have I been so glad to be wrong, as my favorite team Liverpool ended up winning the league), and Arteta's squad has shown the potential to be Premier League champions despite always falling short of it. Honestly, if it was anyone else than Liverpool being the title favorites, I'd even hope for Arsenal to win, as I've gained a lot of respect for Arteta's squad and managerial vision. But, with Slot's Liverpool being the reigning champions and topping it off with one hell of a transfer window, I can't be putting anyone else at #1 - and as it would feel lazy to put Arsenal at their typical #2, that leaves the pessimistic #3 placement. They'll be in the title race, but this season will be so competitive that the Gunners won't quite have what it takes.
2. Manchester City (last year's finish: 3rd)
I know I sound like a broken record, but once again - this is a tough one, and could go either way. Man City had a subpar season by their standards in 2024/25, yet they still managed to get a 3rd-place finish. My initial draft for these predictions had them all the way at fifth, as I was going to boldly declare that last season was the beginning of the end for them, or at least the beginning of a rut.
But it was hard to fit the other teams into that equation, and the more I thought about it, the more I became cynical - I'd like to think that money still can't buy you everything in football, but the fact that Big Oil just won the Champions League final with a whopping 5-0 score is quite a dark indicator. So, I'm guessing that City's endless blood money will give them the resources they need to improve from last season, and they'll once again be wreaking havoc in the title race.
1. Liverpool (last year's finish: 1st)
I'm nervous as hell writing this - I'm not the most superstitious person, but as Michael Scott says in The Office, "I am a little stitious". And so far, my predictions and their contrast to reality have followed a strange pattern. For the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, I predicted Liverpool to win the league, and they did not. Then, for 2024/25, I was all "okay, it's a new manager and everything, so you can't expect too much, so I'll be a realist and put them at 3rd" - and that's when they win the whole f**king thing.
So, a big part of me wanted to put my favorite team anywhere else than 1st place in these predictions, all because of the superstition that so far reality has always gone differently from my predictions, so what if there's a correlation? But, at the end of the day, I just couldn't - because I legitimately believe in Liverpool so much at the moment. They had a fantastic season, they have a remarkable squad and a great manager, and they've had one of the best-looking transfer windows of all time (Frimpong and Wirtz were literally the top 2 players I would've gotten for Liverpool if I could've chosen from any two players in the world last spring). It would feel stupid and lame not to put them at #1, when they so very much are looking to repeat their season as the best team in England.
And yes, I know what this means - if Liverpool doesn't win the league, you can blame me. Among other things, this is a test - if Liverpool wins, it means that my curse is broken, and I don't have to let my fear of magic correlations rule my annual predictions in the future. If they don't win, that'll confirm to me that the curse is real, and I'll never put Liverpool at #1 again.
Also, I just really hope and legitimately feel that they'll win. Diogo Jota will be watching from the big stands in the sky, and his teammates surely know that striking a bunch of beautiful goals would be an extremely appropriate way to honor his memory.
Thank you for reading! Tune in next week for a post requested by my fiancée Martta - the top 20 TV episodes written by women.
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