Best Picture - 1917
While I do believe this category to be a 50-50 toss-up between 1917 and Parasite (if anything else wins, I will be truly surprised), I do believe Sam Mendes's war epic to have a slight edge. Between winning the Golden Globe for best drama, being a unique and groundbreaking technical achievement, gaining immense amounts of praise from critics and dealing with the serious topic of war with a powerful story, 1917 has all the makings for a Best Picture winner.
Best Actor in a Leading Role - Joker (Joaquin Phoenix)
While Leo DiCaprio and Adam Driver also have somewhat of a shot, I still see Joaquin Phoenix's win as the easily most likely scenario. His performance has been the subject of incredible praise on all fronts ever since Joker hit the theaters, and his one-of-a-kind portrayal of mental illness and descending into madness is just the kind of gripping stuff that often dominates the acting categories in the Academy Awards. If Phoenix indeed wins for his stunning performance, it will be thoroughly deserved.
Best Actress in a Leading Role - Judy (Renée Zellweger)
While I haven't unfortunately seen this film (I really would love to see all of these movies but my student budget has different priorities), I have noticed that Zellweger's performance in this film has gathered more critical praise than any of the other Best Actress nominees. Between playing an iconic real-life figure, portraying a complex personality and being a wonderfully talented actress, Zellweger is very likely to pick up her second Academy Award.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (Brad Pitt)
This category is very much up for grabs, with Al Pacino and Tom Hanks also having a fair chance. I still see Brad Pitt as the likeliest option; he has been crushing the awards season with a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, a Screen Actors Guild award and a Critic's Choice award for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. And no wonder; Pitt's performance in Tarantino's film truly is Oscar-worthy and a highlight of his impressive career.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Marriage Story (Laura Dern)
Laura Dern's performance in Marriage Story is the definition of great supporting acting; she never steals the spotlight from the film's two strong lead performances, yet makes the story richer with her portrayal of a morally complicated lawyer with just the right amount of compassion to be likable yet just the right amount of rule-bending and selfishness to be antagonistic at times. Dern does such an amazing job balancing the different sides of her character that the Academy is very likely to recognize it.
Best Director - 1917 (Sam Mendes)
I mean, it's one of the best-directed movies ever made. Any other year, Tarantino's work in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood or Scorsese's in The Irishman would be extremely hard to beat in the Oscar race, but this year all other directing feats dwarf in comparison to Sam Mendes's intricate, carefully crafted masterpiece.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay - Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
This is one of the harder categories to predict - will the Academy prefer Joker's adaptation of comic book storylines into a gritty real-life scenario, Little Women's adaptation of a classic novel onto the silver screen, or The Irishman's cinematic take on a true story? While all of those films do stand a chance, my money is on Jojo Rabbit for sheer uniqueness - much like with Get Out's screenwriting Oscar in 2017/2018, I believe the Academy will prefer a unique work unlike anything else that has been made. True stories and novel adaptations are up for the Oscars every year, but when else would the Academy get to vote for a critically acclaimed Hitler-comedy?
Best Writing, Original Screenplay - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Much like the adapted screenplay category, this is one that I'm not all that sure about. My money is on Tarantino's wonderfully original and multi-layered script for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, but I won't be the least bit surprised if Noah Baumbach nabs the award for his work on Marriage Story. Parasite, 1917 and even Knives Out to some degree have chance as well as they all have gained much acclaim for their writing, making this the only category where any of the five nominees could win without it being a major surprise.
Best Animated Feature Film - Klaus
Fiercely competing with Toy Story 4 for the animated feature award, I think Klaus will make it as this year's winner - as acclaimed as Toy Story 4 was, the Academy does generally prefer original works to franchise sequels. While I haven't seen Klaus, I have noticed the multitude of compliments that critics have given it, and it does sound like the kind of film the Academy would look favorably upon.
Best Cinematography - 1917 (Roger Deakins)
This is the one I'd bet on, were I a betting man. Featuring the hands-down best cinematography I have ever seen in any film, there is no way in Hell that 1917 isn't taking home the Oscar for best cinematography. This award going to anyone except 14-time nominee Roger Deakins would make for a shocking upset in the Best Cinematography race - if you can call it a race.
Best Costume Design - Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
A beautiful-looking period piece with costume design by 6-time Oscar nominee Jacqueline Durran, Little Women is this category's frontrunner with Once Upon A Time In Hollwood close on its heels. Actual voting-on-your-heart aside (as the Oscars have been known to incorporate other elements into their choices), the Academy will likely want to give at least one win for Little Women after upsetting the film's fan base with snubbing Greta Gerwig for Best Director. If the film wins nothing else, I'm guessing it at least gets this one.
Best Documentary, Feature - For Sama
A critically decorated documentary about the female experience of war? Sure sounds like an Oscar winner to me. Similarly themed The Cave is another strong contender, but there seems to be more critical buzz around For Sama.
Best Documentary, Short Subject - In The Absence
In The Abscence is a gripping Korean documentary about the sinking of a ferry with students aboard, the failure in the government's first response to this and the chaotic aftermath that followed. With sharp production values and a grim, eye-opening real-life story unfolding through the 28-minute runtime, In The Absence has all the makings of an Oscar winner for this category.
Best Film Editing - Parasite (Yang Jinmo)
I have a major confession to make: I have not seen Parasite yet. Even a few of the biggest Oscar movies evaded me this year, though I definitely mean to catch Parasite as soon as possible. Oscars can be predicted quite well even when one hasn't seen all the films, due to the somewhat predictable nature of the Academy and the knowledge one has of these films through various media. I do believe Parasite will win something in addition to its inevitable Best International Film win, and best editing seems likely - I've heard good things specifically about the film's editing more than once, even though that isn't a very common area to give special credit to in movie conversations.
Best International Feature Film - Parasite
Along with 1917 in Best Cinematography, this is one of the few categories that I feel truly sure about. Parasite has gained immense praise from critics around the world, not to mention its nominations in other categories such as Best Picture and Best Director, where no other foreign films made the cut. This one is pretty much set in stone.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Bombshell (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker)
Joker also stands a chance in this category for sure, with the iconic look it gave to its titular character. That being said, my figurative money is on Bombshell for its incredible work. The crown jewel of the film's makeup work is transforming John Lithgow into a very realistic-looking Roger Ailes, yet the makeup department also deserves praise for their work in making the rest of the cast look very much like their real-life counterparts - especially Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly.
Best Music, Original Score - Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Talk about a toss-up - I wouldn't be one bit surprised if this one went to Thomas Newman's heart-pounding 1917 soundtrack or 87-year-old John Williams's dramatic Star Wars: Episode IX score. Still, the likeliest of the likely options is Icelandic composer Hildur Guðnadóttir's atmospheric score for Joker, which has already won plenty of awards and seems to have a clear Oscar momentum to it.
Best Music, Original Song - Harriet ("Stand Up" by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo)
With powerful lyrics and a standout vocal performance by Cynthia Erivo, Stand Up has all the makings of a victorious Oscar song.
Best Production Design - 1917 (Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales)
The incredible set design for 1917 will very likely win a well-deserved Academy Award for the work that went into creating the film's setting. Such a huge area of realistic World War I -trenches and battlefields was created for this long-take film, and the end product was quite mesmerizing.
Best Short Film, Animated - Hair Love
Hair Love is a beautiful and sweet short film, with quality animation and a nice story. Pixar's Kitbull is another strong contender for this category, but I bet the Academy will ultimately prefer a smaller production company that also bodes well for minority representation - something the Academy has been repeatedly criticized for not having enough of.
Best Short Film, Live Action - Brotherhood
Much like Hair Love, the Tunisian short film Brotherhood is also a chance for the Oscars to showcase diversity while also giving the award to a thoroughly deserving film. Brotherhood's themes of prejudice, religion, war and family are very universal and topical subjects and the cast is very decent. Another contender is the thought-provoking The Neighbor's Window, but I'm guessing that Brotherhood has the better chance of winning.
Best Sound Editing - 1917 (Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate)
Creating the soundscape for 1917 was a truly challenging job. As supervising sound editor Oliver Tarney said, they had to help the audience get into the world of the two main characters by revealing everything they come across only as it is revealed to them. This makes for very well-paced and well-timed sound effects, that also come across as realistic and often quite frightening.
Best Sound Mixing - 1917 (Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson)
I can only imagine how hard 1917's sound team had to work in order to accomplish the realistic sounds that came with the long-take narrative of the movie. The way the heavy breathing, footsteps and other sounds are heard quite loudly above the soundtrack really adds to the depth of the movie's atmosphere, making the viewer more immersed in the story of the main characters. This excellent sound department deserves an Oscar for their efforts (at least possibly - I haven't yet seen Ford v Ferrari, which is considered to be another strong contender for sound mixing.
Best Visual Effects - Avengers: Endgame
This is a neck-to-neck race, with 1917's realistic practical effects, The Lion King's photorealistic animation technique and The Irishman's de-aging technology competing with the more conventional blockbuster CGI of Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker and Avengers: Endgame. My money is on the very deserving Endgame; the movie looks so incredible from start to finish, with Marvel's visual effects team once again outdoing themselves in terms of cinematic grandeur. Also, considering the more calculating side of the Academy, they might want to award something to the arguably biggest movie in cinema history just out of principle.
Thanks for reading! My afterthoughts on the Oscars - in list form - will be posted here on Thursday as usual.
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