My Top 10 Predictions for EURO2024

Greetings, reader!

Well, the 2024 European Football Championship starts TOMORROW, and I for one am very hyped. Remember, this is a movie/TV blog, and a month-long football competition broadcast on television to millions of viewers across the world can be seen as an exceptionally cool reality TV series, so this is not off-topic! Anyhow, here are my top 10 predictions for the tournament.

10. Portugal will crash and burn

Sure, they have big names in the squad and lots of potential - but my intuition says that this isn't Portugal's year. The Portugal squad that won EURO2016 is starting to be a historic relic, and while there has been no shortage of new young players to fill their boots, I think that the full clean-slate rebuild can and will happen only once the Ronaldo era is done and dusted.

In the 2022 World Cup, Portugal played better without Ronaldo on the pitch than with him, but since he's still active and in the squad and Ronaldo, I'm guessing that manager Roberto Martinez will rely on him too much and that will prevent them from truly playing as a team. I think they'll play poorly, but likely still barely make it out of the group stage if only because of the other teams being Turkey, Georgia and Czech Republic. But they'll be eliminated in the round of 16, or at the very least, the quarter-finals.

9. Somehow, Austria will make it out of the group stage

This is a hot take, as the other teams in Group D are Poland, France and the Netherlands. On paper, it seems that Austria is doomed, I tell you, doomed! But my intuition says that at least one of the bigger teams in the group will underperform, and Austria will nab one of the third-place finishes that are enough for qualification into the knockout stage.

Their underdog status in the group could work as a motivator, and let's not forget that they have some serious names in their ranks: Konrad Laimer has had a decent season with Bayern Munich, Marcel Sabitzer played a crucial role in Borussia Dortmund's road to the Champions League final, and this might just be the last dance for veteran captain David Alaba, who tragically won't be able to play due to injury but is being brought on as a non-playing captain as his role in the team's dynamic is so important.

8. An early exit for Croatia

When Croatia shockingly became the runners-up in the 2018 World Cup, it was a cinderella story. When they got to third place in the 2022 World Cup, it sparked a discussion on whether this was two flukes in a row, or a case of Croatia entering the tier of football's great countries, alongside the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Spain et cetera. While a strong case can be made for the latter, I have a hunch that the country doesn't quite have what it takes to repeatedly perform at that level, so this will be an off-year for them.

Even getting out of the group stages isn't guaranteed, as Spain and Italy are there as well. I'm guessing that Croatia will finish 2nd or 3rd in the group, and assuming they do well enough to make it to the knockout stage, they'll be eliminated in the round of 16. Nothing against the team (or especially Luka Modric, one of my all-time favorite players), my intuition just says that this won't be their year.

7. Belgium, despite being literally cursed, will do alright

Belgium's much-hyped 'golden age' came and went, with the underwhelming end result of one third-place World Cup finish and a litany of dropping-out-earlier-than-expected performances. That generation is largely gone, with its stars either retired (Vincent Kompany, Eden Hazard etc.) or past their prime (Thibaut Courtois, Romelu Lukaku etc.). Sure, the country has young talents like any other, but even their youth prospects aren't as exciting as those from Spain or England et cetera, so on paper, the team should be in a rut and much shouldn't be expected from them.

Maybe that precisely is why they'll do so well this year.

Without the pressures of "having to perform well now because the clock is ticking on the golden generation", they can just play to win like any other team, and the lack of overthinking will be an advantage. Also, let's not forget that the greatest Belgian player of our time, Kevin De Bruyne, is still going strong, and having the best playmaker in the world on your team is an immediate advantage. I think they'll play better as a team than they have in several competitions, and make it at least all the way to the semifinals.

6. A flop for defending champions Italy

As is often the case for the defending champions, this won't be Italy's year. Their victorious EURO2020 campaign rested on the backs of legendary centre-backs Chiellini and Bonucci, gloriously together for one last dance, but they are no longer with us (retired, not dead). Without them, the current Italy squad is certainly good but not quite enough to make it especially far in such a competetive tournament. I reckon they'll most likely get out of the group, but just as I predicted for Portugal and Croatia, not much further than that.

5. Host country Germany gets far (but nor far enough)

As disjointed as Germany's squad has been for the last few major tournaments, the potential is there, especially this year - old-timers Thomas Müller and Manuel Neuer are still going strong, stars like Joshua Kimmich and Antonio Rüdiger are in their prime, and newcomers like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala have been tearing up the Bundesliga. Their defense, midfield and forward departments all look very strong, so assuming they play better as a team as they did in the previous World Cup, I think the host country will make it to the semi-finals or maybe even the final.

4. This is boring, but Mbappé will be the top scorer

I mean, love him or hate him, Kylian Mbappé is just really f**king good at playing football and scoring goals, especially in big games for his national team. It would feel like a stupid risk to predict anyone else to be the top scorer - sure, I could easily see the honor going to Gakpo or Wirtz or Bellingham, but all of them seem like inferior guesses and unnecessarily hot takes when compared to the force that is Mbappé.

I have no idea how France will do, as their chaotic squad always has the potential but sometimes misses the mark - but whether they make it far or get eliminated in the quarter-finals, I reckon that the turtle man will score enough goals to secure the status of top scorer.

3. This year's big underdog story is - wait for it - SCOTLAND

FREEDOM!!!

A European Championship tournament needs a good underdog story, like Iceland in 2016 or Denmark in 2021 - and this year, my money is on Scotland. They'll fight their way out of Group A despite challenges from inevitable group winners Germany, the never-easy opponent Switzerland and Dominik Szoboszlai's Hungary. Then they'll gain an epic victory in the round of 16, preferably eliminating some big-name team like Italy in the process.

With Southampton regulars Stuart Armstrong and Che Adams who just fought their team back into the Premier League, Aston Villa's captain John McGinn ruling the midfield with his intense style of playing, and the national team's captain Andrew Robertson of Liverpool stardom passionately giving his everything, I think this team will fight like hell and prove the haters wrong. They'll make it at least to the quarter-finals - I'm not ruling out the semis either!

2. Here's my Team Of The Tournament prediction

After crossreferencing the teams I think will make it far with the players whose performance I have the most faith in, here's my prediction to what the official Team of the Tournament will look like after it's all said and done:

GK - Manuel Neuer (Germany)

LB - Andrew Robertson (Scotland)

CB - Jonathan Tah (Germany)

CB - John Stones (England)

RB - Jeremie Frimpong (Netherlands)

CDM - Declan Rice (England)

AM - Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)

AM - Jude Bellingham (England)

LW - Kylian Mbappé (France)

ST - Harry Kane (England)

RW - Bukayo Saka (England)

1. It is, in fact, coming home

As might be guessed from the various hints above, I am once again going all-out with the claim that this, and bear with me here, is the year that football comes home. A major trophy for England has been in the cards for a long time - the squad has been home to some of the world's best players in the last years, and Gareth Southgate has guided them to quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final in the last three major tournaments (I reckon that losing the 2018 World Cup bronze match as well as losing the EURO2020 final on penalties left the players with just the right amount of bitterness, that can hopefully be channelled into fighting like never before in this year's tournament).

I mean, with figures like John Stones in defense (as well as goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, who always delivers in the England shirt), wizards like Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham dominating the midfield, and the technical expertise of Bukayo Saka combining with the clinical strikes of Harry Kane in attack - who is stopping this team? No one, that's my bold prediction. It's coming home, and Declan Rice is the player of the tournament (you heard it here first)!

Thank you for reading! Tune in next week as I celebrate my birthday with an incredibly self-indulgent post - my band Säätövara recently played its 50th gig, and I've ranked all of them.