My 2024/2025 Oscar predictions

Greetings, reader!

'Tis the season - the Academy Awards are this Sunday, and as is tradition, I'm sharing my predictions. Let's see if I'll beat last year's score of 15 out of 23!

Best Picture - The Brutalist

This is a bit of a toss-up (as always), with flicks like A Complete Unknown, Anora and (*sigh*) Emilia Perez having a chance. But my money is on The Brutalist - it has generated discourse and even controversy to a degree of 'yay, content and relevance' for the Academy, without being ridiculously over-controversial like goddamn Emilia Perez. I haven't seen The Brutalist yet, but I've gathered that it's really well-made, and considered a big frontrunner from various points-of-view. It also won the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), which can't hurt its chances.

Best director - Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

This one is also difficult to estimate without seeing the film (gulp - I've only seen one of the five nominees; in previous years, I would've been ashamed, but I've grown to appreciate that my taste in film has evolved from 'what's in the Oscars this year' to 'what am I really interested in'). But Brady Corbet's directing here has been widely praised by various award season voices, more so than that of any other 2024 films at least on my radar. And once again, Corbet won Best Director at the Golden Globes, which should indicate something - it's a tricky business to predict the Oscar based on the Globes as they never go quite hand in hand, but there's always more correlation than difference.

Best actor - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Yeah, The Brutalist might be headed for quite a sweep in some of the biggest categories. I'm guessing it'll win this one even if it were to miss out on Best Picture (or even Director, although I'm fairly confident it's got that one in the bag). Brody's performance has been widely acclaimed, and once again, if you're looking from evidence from the Globes, he won big there. Timothée Chalamet has a fair shot for A Complete Unknown as well, but Brody seems to have even more award season traction, so I'm guessing Chalamet's Pacino-esque 'get nominated a fuck-bunch of time before eventually winning' arch will take a few more years (or decades).

Best actress - Demi Moore, The Substance

For this one, looking to the Golden Globes for guidance gets tough, as their dumb and arbitrary division of films into 'drama' and 'comedy or musical' messes things up. Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres won in their respective categories and they're both nominated in this Oscar category, so I'm guessing one of them will take the W here. Sure, both actresses have major controversies around them, as do fellow nominees Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón - so, if 'no unnecessary drama' were the factor, the win would go a very deserving Cynthia Erivo. But, as we all know, the Academy loves unnecessary drama, and Erivo winning would be much too good and deserving of a choice for the Academy to actually go with it. So, my money is on Moore.

Best supporting actor - Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

This one seems like a slam dunk - Kieran Culkin's arch from 'the kid who wets his bed in Home Alone' to 'serious dramatic actor and film critic darling' is such a narrative that the Academy loves to boost. Not to mention that Culkin's performance in A Real Pain has been widely praised on all levels, and once again, he won a Golden Globe (shit, now I'm getting worried that my guesses correlate too much with the Globes - something has to go differently, but I don't know which prediction I should change!).

Best supporting actress - Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

God damn f**king Emilia Perez. Now, I must give the disclaimer that I haven't watched the film, so technically I shouldn't be allowed to say anything about it. But, in my defense - I started out with an open mind. When the film started to generate its first 'the critics love it but the people hate it' headlines, and my fiancée showed me TikToks of individual scenes showing what a ridiculous film it is, my initial reaction was to defend it - I said all the classics, like "we should watch the film before getting to criticize it" and "individual scenes without context might look stupid, but actually work in the context so we shouldn't judge".

But then, the headlines kept coming - from 'Here's why actual Mexicans find the film offensive', and 'Why Emilia Perez is actually hurtful to the trans community', through 'The controversial use of AI in the music of Emilia Perez', all the way to 'You won't believe what the lead actress tweeted about Islam / George Floyd / China / pretty much any given subject'. As can be expected, the film was duly punished for all this messiness, with 13 Oscar nominations.

Anyways, whether or not the film wins big at the Oscars or not is anyone's guess at this point. On one hand, it would be a typical dumbass Academy move to give the film 13 nominations, but then get second thoughts after the controversies, and act as if the nominations never existed and award the film with fuck all. But on the other, it would also be a classic dumbass Academy move to be embarrassed about the controversies, but still stubbornly vote for the film to win a bunch of categories, because they're screwed anyways after the amount of nominations. I won't be surprised if the Academy tries to rewrite history and give Emilia Perez an undoubtedly deserved zero wins, but I also won't be shocked if it ends up winning big in Best Picture and eight other categories. My best guess is somewhere in between - it'll still win those few categories where it was considered a big frontrunner (like this one - seemingly even the haters are complimenting Saldaña's performance), but lose out on the categories that were competitive already before the wave of controversies.

Best original screenplay - Sean Baker, Anora

Here I can't really look to the Globes for guidance, because unlike the Oscars, they have only one category for screenwriting and this year the win went to an adapted script, not an original one. However, a few of the nominees here were also nominated at the Globes, so at the very least I'm guessing the winner will be one of those. Anora seems to have the most screenwriting hype around it - the story and dialogue have been highlighted by many a critic, and it seems like a movie that is bound to win something but I'm guessing it'll lose out to its competitors in most other categories. Can't give everything to The Brutalist!

Best adapted screenplay - Peter Straughan, Conclave

Once again, I'm lazily going with the film that won the respective Golden Globes category - here it makes extra sense, because it won there from a selection of all screenplays, original and adapted, so you'd think it's bound to do the same with half the competition at the Oscars. And I don't really see any of the other nominees winning this one - A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing weren't even nominated at the Globes, and, well, Emilia goddamn Perez is always a wild card but I'd like to believe that they won't reward the film's writing out of all things.

Best animated feature - The Wild Robot

This year, there are less classic two-horse races as most years - most categories seem to either trend towards a clear singular frontrunner or then an unpredictable race between three or more serious contenders. But Best Animated Feature seems to fit in the classic duel format - all experts and indicators seem to agree that either the Latvian film Flow or Dreamworks' The Wild Robot will be taking the win (unless we're in for a big Wallace and Gromit upset). It's anyone's guess which one will win, but I'm going with The Wild Robot pretty much just because it didn't win at the Golden Globes (Flow did), so this solves my 'can't base every guess on the Globes' dilemma.

Best international feature - Emilia Perez

This one is a toss-up - in many years, Best International Feature is one of the easiest to predict, as quite often there are five nominees of which one is nominated for eight other awards (including Best Picture) while the other four are nominated for Best International Feature. This year, many of the nominees are also nominated in other categories, including two Best Picture nominees (I'm Still Here and, you guessed it, Emilia f**king Perez). You'd think that the film with 13 nominations has an obvious leg over the film with three, but the wild trajectory of the year's weirdest movie phenomenon has thrown a wrench in this race - if the Academy wants to walk back its admittedly embarrassing embrace of this train wreck, giving International Feature to I'm Still Here would be the way to go. But, having to pick one to bet for, I'm going with Oscar Bait Extravaganza.

Best documentary feature film - No Other Land

My initial thought was to predict this category to any other nominee than No Other Land - a Palestinian film documenting the suffering in the West Bank just seems like such an underdog, especially after seeing what a testament to Zionism last year's Oscars and the Hollywood reaction to them was. Obviously, the Academy has always loved political films, but usually the trend is for the wins to go to films that are political in a safe, noncontroversial and liberal way, not those that touch the need for actually challenging the status quo, addressing systemic injustices and uncomfortable truths. So, my impulse was a strong 'there's no way that the film highlighting the Palestinian people and their right to self-determination will possibly win at the Oscars'.

But now, there's hope. No Other Land has been met with an amazing critical response, winning big at the Berlin International Film Festival, the Vancouver International Film Festival, the National Board of Review Awards, the International Documentary Association Awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the Cinema Eye Honors, and the London Film Critics' Circle - just to name a few. I'll be pretty damn angry, albeit not very surprised, if the film doesn't win an Oscar after all of this. At least there seems to be a good chance, so I'm trying to manifest a big win and a speech calling for a Free Palestine with this prediction!

Best documentary short film - I Am Ready, Warden

You know how I mentioned that the Oscars love to highlight the kind of political issues that aren't very controversial to begin with in the generally liberal Hollywood world? Being critical of the death penalty, which is still practiced in 27 U.S. states, goes right into that sweet spot. Of course, going on 'Oscar bait' themes alone is not enough of an argument, because the competition is heavy - the fellow nominees include Death By Numbers (school shootings), The Only Girl in the Orchestra (the title says it all) and Incident (police brutality - okay, maybe Hollywood isn't quite ready for that one yet). But I Am Ready, Warden does seem to have the most traction behind it. Also, it does sound like a very genuine film and not just Oscar bait - I was in tears just reading the synopsis.

Best live action short film - The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Once again, you can't look at 'Oscar bait' themes alone, because that would be quite the even race - the nominees highlight immigration (A Lien), child labor (Anuja), the digital crisis (I'm Not a Robot), wildlife protection (The Last Ranger) and nationalist violence (The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent). My hunch, based on the medium amount of reading I've being doing on this year's Oscar nominees, is that the Croatian The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent has the most Award season hype behind it.

Best animated short film - Beautiful Men

Despite its branding issue (my tired ass googled 'Beautiful men' to do some reading on the film, and wondered why the result was a bunch of pictures of Liam Hemsworth and Robert Pattinson), I'm guessing this Belgian-French-Dutch production has the lock on this category, based on its overall acclaim in various film festivals and other accolades. Nina Gantz' Wander to Wonder also has a fair shot, but I'm guessing it'll remain a runner-up.

Best original score - Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

Fuck this absolute joke of a category. The fact that Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross' Challengers score wasn't even nominated, not to mention the snub of Hans Zimmer for Dune: Part Two, means that as a self-respecting musician, I will not give serious thought or legitimacy into this charade of a 'category'.

Granted, I haven't watched four of the nominated films, but let's be real - Wicked, while amazing, did not have a better instrumental score than Challengers or Dune: Part Two by any logic, and I listened enough of the Brutalist, Conclave and The Wild Robot scores to know that they can't possibly be as groundbreaking and genius as the snubbed ones - and Emilia Perez? Really? Reznor and Ross were out there pouring their hearts out into one of the greatest soundtracks of the decade, while Hans Zimmer carefully crafted what is arguably his magnum opus to perfectly fit the atmosphere of Frank Herbert's source material, and they sure as hell didn't need any goddamn fucking AI to do it.

Oh, and guess who won the Golden Globe for Best Original Score? Challengers did, very deservedly, and these clowns didn't even bother to give them a nomination. Anyways, I'll say that The Brutalist wins, but I really don't give a shit.

Best original song - El Mal from Emilia Pérez

*Deep sigh*

Best sound - Dune: Part Two

At least Dune is probably going to get this one. I could also see Wicked or A Complete Unknown nabbing Best Sound (don't get me started if Emilia fucking Perez takes it), because sometimes the Academy doesn't award sequels because of the short-sighted "they're just doing the same thing again" narrative. 2021's Dune easily won Best Sound, and I've read enough about how the ingeniously crafted sound design process went even deeper in the second film with a plethora of new innovations to know that it really should win (but will it win is anyone's guess).

Best production design - Wicked

Every year I pick the one category that I'm the most sure about, and I make the same bet: if I get this one wrong, I'm watching all six Sharknado films (maybe even all three spin-offs as well), and ranking them in excruciating detail on this blog. So far I've made the Sharknado bet for these categories:

2019/20 - Best Cinematography for 1917

2020/21 - Best Animated Feature for Soul

2021/22 - Best Sound for Dune

2022/23 - Best International Feature for All Quiet on the Western Front

2023/24 - Best International Feature for The Zone of Interest

Thankfully, all of them have gone right. This year I'm taking my chances with Wicked for Production Design - from the carefully paved and muddy Yellow Brick Road, through the fantastic-looking life-size train, all the way to really planting nine million colorful tulips on set so that Munchkinland would look like Munchkinland, the large-scale practical set design of Wicked is bound to win.

Best cinematography - Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

LOL, this guy's name is Lol. Anyways, I reckon he'll be the one laughing out loud when he wins the Academy Award for Best Cinematography.

Best makeup and hairstyling - The Substance

When a body horror film is one of the year's big Oscar contenders, that alone implies somewhat of a lock on the Makeup and Hairstyling category. I haven't seen The Substance, but one of its most praised elements appears to be how the stars and various creatures were made to look with the use of prosthetics, creative makeup choices and practical effects.

Best costume design - Paul Tazewell, Wicked

The costumes in Wicked were so majestic that I don't feel like I even need to see the other nominated films to be sure of this one. I'm pretty sure I made this prediction in my mind already when I saw the first trailer for Wicked last year.

Best film editing - Nick Emerson, Conclave

Every year's Oscars script seems to include that one movie that is nominated across the board, fairly competitive for the big categories, but only ends up winning one or two categories. This year I'm guessing this narrative for the religious and political drama Conclave - my final predictions have it winning two awards, but I feel more sure about Best Editing than I do about Adapted Screenplay. (Source: a hunch).

Really, it all depends on The Brutalist - if the Academy clearly prefers it and the film ends up winning seven or eight Oscars, Editing will be one of them. But if the winners are more evenly spread, The Brutalist will only win four of five, and Editing will be one of the ones going as a consolation prize to another Best Picture hopeful, specifically Conclave.

Best visual effects - Dune: Part Two

I mean, obviously Dune: Part Two is winning Best Visual Effects. I almost made my Sharknado bet about this one, but then I figured that I was even more confident about Wicked in Costume Design.

Thank you for reading! Tune in next week as I kick off this year's Literature Month, starting off with a ranking of Frank Herbert's Dune books.